NFL Draft prospects I'm higher or lower on than most: Why Drake Maye makes me nervous (2024)

Even after reviewing and dissecting every detail of each player eligible for selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, scouting staffs will still have differences in opinions about prospects.

You can never make everyone in the room completely happy, as feelings and egos get bruised often. There will be pushback. But, for the most part, NFL evaluators check their egos at the door when the final results are displayed on a team’s draft board (I wish I could say the same about social media).

Here are a few prospects who might come up in late pre-draft discussions, as they have a wide variety of grades around the league and among media evaluators. I don’t quite see them how many others do: I believe some are being overvalued, and some are sliding under the radar, for various reasons.

I’ve included where each player ranks on our Consensus Big Board. This could differ considerably from NFL boards around the league, but it’s the best measure we have of broader public rankings.

Overvalued prospects

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 3

No position generates more interest — and with it, passion — than quarterback, and opinions might vary more this year than in any I can remember. I know NFL people who view Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy anywhere from worthy of a top-five pick to outside of the first round. The best reason I can offer for the variance is it might depend on which games each evaluator watched.

That being said, I think all of the quarterbacks outside of Caleb Williams this year are, to varying degrees, being overvalued. Outside of Williams, I don’t see any as a lock to be a franchise quarterback, and that includes LSU’s Jayden Daniels. But for the sake of this discussion, I see Maye as the most overvalued.

His biggest asset, and probably what I hear most often as his top redeeming quality, is his size. Clearly, that can’t be argued: 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds is the frame we are all looking for, so you’ll get no dispute there from me.

But the traits that follow are mostly ordinary. That includes processing (questionable decision-making), accuracy (very inconsistent) and his semi-long release, which slows his ability to get the ball out of his hand. And yes, I watched some of the 2022 season as well. I struggled most with the frequency of his misses and his decision-making under pressure.

I think he can improve on some of these things, but it’s going to take time, and it requires a leap of faith that I’m not ready to make. Therefore, I would be nervous about selecting him in the top five. I just don’t see elite traits beyond his measurables.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 30

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 19

These two Georgia Bulldogs have evaluators, inside and outside of NFL buildings, singing their praises, but I struggled with them, in part because of their incomplete bodies of work.

In McConkey’s case, are we getting strictly a slot receiver to play on third downs? Twenty of his 30 catches this year went for first downs, so his value on third down is evident. But he is not quite 6-foot tall, and his production was down this year due to injuries (that, in itself, might be problematic), which has to factor into the equation. From the tape, I thought his route tree was somewhat incomplete, and that his tightness in and out of hard cuts might limit his role in some schemes as an outside receiver.

Given those questions, I might realistically value him outside of the first couple of rounds. Usually, players with a fuller body of work go sooner in the draft.

Meanwhile, Mims’ injury-riddled 2023 season requires evaluators to judge two different players: pre-injury versus post-injury. He is big, strong and long, but he played in only seven games in 2023 and didn’t seem the same when he returned in the second half of the season. He has just eight career starts.

The need for offensive tackles has driven his perceived value up the charts, for some. To me, the questions might outweigh the upside, but those coveted traits will always be there, enticing teams to overlook short-term hurdles. Mims might be a player whom scouts love but big-picture team builders struggle with.

Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 67

Many evaluators have Hicks rated in the top three at his position, but I see a young player (21 years old and three years out of high school) who might not have a real position in many NFL defensive schemes. To me, he has the skill set of a box safety, something I struggle with as an evaluator. I saw a lack of suddenness and coverage ability, including some hip stiffness and balky transitions.

It is very hard to hide someone who lacks cover skills in the current NFL, with spread offenses and three-receiver formations taking over the league. The comparison one could make is with Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, but he plays in a unique scheme that accentuates his positives and covers his negatives. That’s what Hicks will need to be successful. Given that, he might be drafted much later than some experts feel he should be.

Undervalued prospects

Laiatu Latu, edge, UCLA

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 13

Latu has a skill set that, in most years, would make him a top-five choice. He is explosive off the ball, has natural lean to squeeze the pocket and has an advanced array of tools and variety of moves to get to the passer in multiple ways. And he plays a premium position. Think Brian Burns (five-year, $141 million contract with the Giants) or Danielle Hunter (two years, $49 million with the Texans), both of whom have similar skill sets.

At 260 pounds, Latu brings a punch to set the edge in the run game, slightly better than Dallas Turner from Alabama, in my opinion. Turner tops many draft boards on the defensive side because he is so explosive as a pure rusher (he ran 4.46 at the combine). Medical departments will have to be heard regarding Latu, but somebody will get a top-five, maybe even top-three, talent this year because the need for quarterbacks and the true quality of the top three wide receivers will drive Latu down the board.

Just a few years ago, @laiatu_latu was told he’d never play football again. Now, he’s about to hear his name called at the NFL Draft. 🔥

📺: 2024 #NFLDraft – Starts Thursday 8pm ET on NFL Network/ESPN/ABC
📱: Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Jf9rxTs7tJ

— NFL (@NFL) April 23, 2024

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 22

Another defensive player in a draft that should be dominated by offense early. If your team plays man-to-man schemes or blitzes a lot, Wiggins is your man, but I don’t see him getting a lot of love around the dial. He is almost 6-2 and ran a 4.28 40 at the combine. Some are bothered by his frame (173 pounds), but when I watch him move, close on a route or recover to play the ball at the moment of truth, he makes me say “wow.” That seldom happens for me at this position.

According to Pro Football Focus, Wiggins allowed 19 receptions, only eight first downs and three plays of 15 yards or more — in the entire 2023 season. I’m no analytics expert, but I think that’s really good. Some teams might ding or even dismiss him because he’s so light, and his tackling might not be what they are looking for. But at a position where being able to run and cover should take precedence, let’s not overthink it. Wiggins is my top cornerback in this class and would be a top-15 value in many drafts I’ve participated in.

Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee

Consensus Big Board rank: No. 74

Wright might not be the first running back on many NFL teams’ rankings, but his speed and explosive athletic ability make me think he might just score a touchdown every time he touches the ball. And that is a feeling I love. I think he compares to Ahman Green, whom I drafted in Seattle years ago and who later became the Green Bay Packers’ all-time leading rusher.

If he joins a locker room with ample leadership and positive support, Wright could be this year’s De’Von Achane. I love his ability to put his foot in the ground and accelerate north and south. In a zone-blocking scheme where one-cut players often excel, he would be outstanding, adding the speed element that most teams covet.

Sione Vaki, S/RB/ST, Utah

Consensus Big Board rank:None (outside the top 100)

Vaki was a jack of all trades at Utah, and his story has become well known. A safety for most of the season, he was forced — due to injuries elsewhere — to finish the season at running back, but still led the team in defensive snaps.

I’m not sure he is either a safety or a running back, but what I am sure of is this: He is the best special teams player I’ve seen in this draft class. He can run and tackle, he has instincts for finding the balland he might just have the perfect frame and skill set to be a kick returner under the new rules the NFL took from the XFL. He is fearless, has better football speed than his 40 time (4.62 at the combine, 4.51 at his pro day) and has the lower-body strength to break an arm tackle and hit a crease as a returner.

I don’t know where or how teams will value his skill set, but my guess is not highly enough. As a team builder more than an evaluator, I want this kid on my team, and it’s easy for me to see a pathway for him to be active and contributing on game day.

(Photos of Drake Maye, left, and Laiatu Latu: Grant Halverson, Harry How / Getty Images)